Will #India and #Modi be boarding the #TrumpTrain ?
Indian PM Narendra Modi has had to deal with the Uttar Pradesh elections as well as agricultural upheaval and continual friction in Jammu and Kashmir. He now turns his attention again to strategic foreign policy; while this has cut across Europe, Russia and Sri Lanka, his most monumental and important tour begins now, staring today with the US and meeting President Donald Trump and then moving onto Israel.
Under Trump the US is poised for incredible change, no matter how uncertain it might seem in terms of direction. Perhaps Modi can gauge Trump’s international outlook judging by how POTUS has handled his recent trips to Europe and the Middle East. Trump opted on containing Iran, therefore placating Saudi Arabia and is confident in SA leading a Sunni-oriented setup which reversed Obama’s previous diplomacy and conciliation between Iran and Riyadh. In terms of the bank account, huge arms and weapons deals should give Trump the leverage to invest back into the US economy.
The Middle East still remains in flux especially given the confusion of isolating Qatar on the one hand then signing a multi-billion deal with them on the other. The issues in this region do affect India and Modi. There are 8 million Indians in the Middle East, depends on vast energy supplies on the region and will be vigilant about seeing which way the wind will be blowing in that direction.
Clearly Trump with his ‘America First’ mantra won’t be too fussed about protecting India, that is if we take his words against NATO seriously and his reluctance to pay for the security of others. On the other hand India is not really looking for American help with regards to defending its territory, this was the case under Obama and India will be happy for Trump to continue to have the US supply more arms to India than anybody else, indicated by the recent Lockheed Martin-Tata deal for the production of F-16 jets in India, yet working with Trump, this just might be the beginning.
This will bring smiles to the faces of both Trump and Modi, other issues may require a little bit more thought. Of course Trump doesn’t want the US to be the policeman of the world anymore but the rise of Islamic State might retard that particular desire given how this scourge has given global terror wings the likes of the which the world has never seen. With a terrorist state like Pakistan on its very border, India will impress upon Trump the fact that its nuclear armed neighbour is a logistical ‘Trump Tower’ of terrorism and IS support.
The second common thorn in their respective side is China’s rise under Xi Jingping and its pressure in the South China Sea area; this is a direct threat to India’s neighbourhood given that China is looking to cultivate the smaller nations in South Asia. Then there’s the issue of Afghanistan and putting the Taliban completely to bed, given that they have freedom to hide, roam and indoctrinate in Kashmiri mountains and the Indian/Pakistan border.
Trump hasn’t yet provided any clarity on how it wants to deal with the troublesome Pakistan and Modi will hope he won’t take the conciliatory attitude he has towards Saudi Arabia in this respect, given Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan, J&K and generally helping to spread radical violent extremism.
Pakistan is enabled by its relationship with China and can enjoy acting belligerent knowing China has its interests to hand. Mr Modi will want to dwell on Trump that the Afghanistan-Pakistan border directly impacts US security. Whilst in Europe, nations can sit down together and decide how to tackle extremism and terrorism, Islamabad has no impetus, desire, wherewithal or inclination to do the same and Modi must make Trump realise they are less interested in jaw-jaw than war-war. Given this will Modi commit to helping the US destroy the Taliban? If it does India can provide military hardware and training to the Afghan security forces but could lead to Trump demanding more and more from India than they might be willing to commit without US backing.
On the Chinese issue, Trump is probably more concerned about placating China to assist with keeping the North Korean issue at bay yet at the same time Trump should ensure India has a role in maritime exercises so as to contain China’s grander ambitions in the region.
Of course Trump wants to concentrate on US jobs for US citizens and is perfectly entitled to do so. Like any major economy, his will also need to supplement national employment efforts with highly skilled immigrant impetus and which raises the issue of H1B visas. US needs highly-qualified foreign manpower as its high-end technological research and development capability is not matched by the technical manpower it produces and the Indian diaspora has been essential that respect.
Trump will also be full aware that Indians are the safest diaspora from overseas and do not involve themselves in acts of terror but it will be Modi’s job to remind him of that fact.
How successful will Modi and his advisors be in explaining their world view to Trump? The fact is an Indian worldview will also enhance the US agenda for securing the US. Narenda Modi has shown himself to be very shrewd in fostering personal relationships with major players. He already gets on well with President Trump, let’s see exactly how the above concerns are discussed and turn out.
